WASHINGTON:
According to defense officials and industry executives, the US Air Force’s ambitious next-generation fighter jet program, which was envisioned as a technological revolution, may become less ambitious as a result of budget constraints, competing objectives, and shifting aims.
The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which was originally intended as a “family of systems” centered on a sixth-generation fighter jet, seeks to replace the F-22 Raptor and provide the United States with the most powerful armament in the skies well into the mid-21st century.
When first suggested, the NGAD program had lofty goals, including unrivaled stealth capabilities, laser weaponry, and onboard artificial intelligence to handle massive amounts of data from modern sensor equipment. However, reports indicate that the current development budget of $28.5 billion over five years, ending in 2029, may be extended or reduced as the Pentagon pursues cost-effective options.
According to sources familiar with the Air Force’s internal budget deliberations, the estimated $3.1 billion NGAD budget for fiscal year 2026 is likely to be lowered, potentially prolonging the development timeframe by two years.
While the total cost of the venture is unknown, it might eventually approach $100 billion if 200 aircraft are delivered, including startup costs as well as later maintenance and improvements. There are now 185 F-22s in service, which the NGAD is designed to replace.
The Air Force is also reconsidering the jet’s concept, possibly shifting to a larger single-engine design rather than the previously believed two-engine design, or reallocating more funding to a less expensive unmanned drone to address future air superiority requirements in the face of potential budget cuts, according to industry experts.
“NGAD was conceived before several developments: before the threat became so severe, before CCAs (drone programme) were introduced, and before we faced current affordability issues,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said on Saturday at Britain’s Royal International Air Tattoo, the world’s largest military air show. “Before we commit to the 2026 budget, we want to make sure we’re on the right track,” he said, stressing that the program will be a hot subject during the Farnborough International Airshow this week.
This shift in focus occurs as the Air Force confronts with large cost overruns in several critical and costly programs. For example, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The program, which aims to replace the aging Minuteman III missiles, has gone 81% over budget, costing roughly $141 billion.
Budget constraints have caused the Air Force to reconsider its expenditure priorities across a range of modernization programs, including increasing production of Northrop Grumman’s new B-21 bomber.
Lockheed Martin and Boeing, both US aerospace and defense giants, have responded to the Air Force’s call for proposals for the NGAD system, according to sources. While defense businesses are not desperate for orders, with ongoing wars in Ukraine and Israel generating solid demand, NGAD was one of several potentially large programs that many anticipated would help their bottom line in the years ahead.
An Air Force official told Reuters that the agency is now preparing its fiscal 2026 budget, which will be announced early next year. Representatives from Boeing did not respond to requests for comment, while Lockheed declined to comment on NGAD.
“The part that seems to be getting stalled and re-evaluated is the air vehicle itself, the central platform,” said J.J. Gertler, a senior analyst with the Teal Group, an aerospace and defense intelligence group. “The Air Force is now making sure that’s what they actually want and possibly changing their mind,” the commander said.
Possible new configurations include switching to a single-engine jet to reduce initial costs and long-term maintenance. Twin-engine jets are more expensive to purchase and operate, but they are more reliable and faster, making them more effective in combat.
Another major component coming from this restructure is the prospective allocation of cash to the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, which is an autonomous fighter drone designed to operate alongside the main plane. The budget for developing these less expensive drone systems remains unchanged.
