China’s unmanned, reusable spacecraft, which launches atop a rocket booster and lands at a secret military airport, is most likely testing technologies but may potentially be used to manipulate or retrieve satellites, according to analysts.
In June, the spacecraft, which was on its third mission, was seen releasing an object, going several kilometers away, and then returning to within a few hundred metres.
“It’s obvious that it has a military application, such as closely inspecting or disabling enemy objects,” said Marco Langbroek, a lecturer in optical space situational awareness at the Netherlands’ Delft University of Technology.
“However, it has non-military applications. Gaining competence with this type of grab and release is beneficial if you wish to, for example, refuel your own satellites.”
As militaries around the world create sophisticated satellite networks, Langbroek and three other researchers believe that reusable spacecraft capable of interfering with them could be extremely valuable.
China has never divulged what technology the spacecraft has tested, and the spaceplane has not been photographed since it began operations.
The United States launched an uncrewed Boeing X-37B spaceplane in 2010, while Russia recently launched multiple satellites that US officials fear are weapons, an accusation Russia denies.
Victoria Samson, chief director of space security and stability at the Secure World Foundation think tank in Washington, D.C., believes China’s spaceplane is most likely testing technologies, similar to the X-37B.
“I don’t think that either has a whole lot of military utility, to be honest,” says Samson. “I am guessing that both are technology demonstrators.”
The Chinese Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The state media outlet Xinhua has reported on the spaceplane’s launches and landings, referring to it as a “reusable test spacecraft.”
The current flight of the Chinese spaceplane began in December 2023. The last mission, which also required launching and returning a different item into space, began in August 2022 and lasted 276 days, according to tracking data. Its first flight was in September 2020, and it lasted two days.
“We see breathtaking advancements by the People’s Republic of China in space,” said General Stephen Whiting, chief of US Space Command, who added that his organization had no idea what objects the spaceplane had delivered.
“Any space activity that they undertake, we assume has some dual use in the national security realm,” according to Whiting. “We’re always interested in understanding what could that dual use be, and trying to make sure that we have a good knowledge of that.”
Mystery craft
Little is known about China’s space plane.
According to tracking data, it takes off from Jiuquan in north-central China and arrives at an airstrip in Lop Nur, Xinjiang.
According to Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, the airstrip is attached to a facility that was previously used for nuclear testing and is strictly monitored by the military.
According to data, it has changed height from common orbits of approximately 350 km (217 miles) to 600 km and returned, he said.
It is estimated to be roughly the same size and shape as the X-37B, which is approximately 30 feet (9.14 m) long and has spent as many as 908 days in orbit at altitudes of up to 38,000 km.
China’s spaceplane is expected to be uncrewed, despite having flown atop China’s only human-rated rocket, the Long March 2F.
The US Space Shuttle, which flew from 1981 to 2011, was roughly the size of a 737 airliner and could carry a crew of seven. However, it could only stay in orbit for 17 days. In 1988, the Soviet Union created Buran, a huge crewed spaceplane that completed one autonomous orbital trip of three hours.
According to Jeffrey Lewis, head of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the Space Shuttle completed 10 classified missions out of 135 flights, prompting the Soviet Union to consider it a military spaceplane and create Buran.
“We don’t want to look at this (Chinese) spaceplane the same way the Soviets looked at the Shuttle,” said Mr. Wang. “A lot of these are just experiments rather than well-thought-out military platforms.”
Military uses
The apparent orbital experiments with object release and retrieval mimic those of the US X-37B.
The X-37B’s missions are all classified, however they are characterized by Boeing as bringing experiments to space and back, as well as testing “reusable vehicle technologies that support long-term space objectives”.
The success of these experiments may have an impact on the mission’s duration. Testing a cutting-edge sensor, for example, could produce intelligence so valuable that the government may want to retain it in orbit for an extended period of time before returning it to the lab, according to McDowell.
Another potential military capability is to inspect or disable an adversary’s satellites. Some countries, such as the United States, China, India, and Russia, currently possess ground-based anti-satellite missiles.
Orbital weapons have long been outlawed, and the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits the use of weapons of mass destruction in space.
In 2021, China tested a hypersonic glide vehicle as part of a Cold War-era concept known as a fractional orbital bombardment system, which sends a warhead partially into orbit, allowing it to hit unexpectedly from unconventional paths.
However, attacking from orbit with a spaceplane has minimal benefit over ballistic or cruise missiles, according to Lewis.
Two senior Indian military personnel, commenting on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, stated that, while the specific aim of the Chinese spaceplane was unknown, India was concerned.
“The spacecraft in question is definitely alarming,” remarked one of the police. “Things like this can always serve two purposes. India is closely observing.”
